This is more of a probability question than Excel - but I know Excel has functions to work out the answer (and I was hopeless with probability maths at school so knowing which function to use is also a problem)
Here's the deal:
There are 43,000 tickets in a multiple draw lottery/raffle
There are 1,730 prizes available.
Each winning ticket is returned to the pool after being drawn, so in theory, one extremely lucky ticket holder could take home every prize.
However, what is the statistical probability (chance) of winning a single prize and what formulae/functions does one use to generate the answer?
I have two data sets one measured and one modelled and I am testing a conceptual model that proposes that only where the tails of the probability distributions of each data set crosses will you experience an event. I'm enclosing an example file which contains both data sets and some descriptive statistics as well as the associated histograms and a diagram of what I'm ultimately trying to achieve. My question is how I go from the data sets I have with such a large discrepancy between them to plotting their probability distributions?
There is trading system which generates a winning trade per ONE stock in ONE month’s time with a probability of 5/12 (0,4166%). If the system trades 10 independent stocks the probability of any number of winning trades occurring out of all of them in ONE month is shown below:
None 0,0046 One 0,0326 Two 0,1047 Three 0,1995 Four 0,2494 Five 0,2172 Six 0,1272 Seven 0,0519 Eight 0,0139 Nine 0,0022 Ten 0,0002
I took these values from a book…I tried to reproduce these values in the spreadsheet that I attached. My table looks as follows:
I want to know if it's possible to calculate the probability that a certain range of values, reach to a certain point.....
The range is this (example):
4 3 9 7 14 22 15 20 42 46.....
What I want to know is if this tendency will reach to 1000. Or how many steps more will be need to reach 1000.
Like I said, and don't know if this is in the right place, but if you put this values in a graphic you will see that the tendency is growing. I assume that this tendency will reach to 1000. But will be in the next 10 steps or in the next 30.
I'm trying to make a bell curve (normal gauss distribution). I have some problems regarding the probability density curve, since its values are so low. If you look column N in the attached file - I used the NORMDIST command. Values should be somewhere between 0,2 and 0,4 - but they're about 100x lower.
Lets say I have 20 cells. I want to randomly assign a label to the each cell from 5 choices, like "Blue", "Orange", "White", "Green", and "Black". But I want to assign a probability of selecting the labels. So the percent probability of choosing Blue would be 56% and White would be 23%, etc. . . is there a function that allows me to do this?
I need a probability distribution for amounts to be shipped taking into account both the probabilty distribution on parcel sizes (amounts to be shipped) per ship as well as the probabilities on the number of ships arriving.
Please see the following:
Say you have a probabilty distribution for ships arriving, i.e. the probabilty of 1 ship arriving in a specific time period= 0.25 ( event a), the probabilty of 2 ships arriving = 0.2 (event B) etc. Please take into account that this can go up to about 20 ships per time period.
Each ship can have one of four parcel sizes, (demand that needs to be met) (the following are just example probabilties)
0 tons with a probability of 0.67 event 1 1000 tons with a probabilty of 0.08 event 2 1500 tons with a probabilty of 0.222 event 3 2000 tons with a probabilty of 0.022 event 4
Thus event a has a probabilty of occuring, in event a, events 1to 4 can occur with their respective probabilties.
I assumed events 1 to 4 stay the same for all ships arriving (as we are dealing with multiple products, each product will have different parcel size distributions, however I look at products seperately, thus only one product is considered here)
This is simple for 1 or 2 ships, but as the number of ships increase the number of combinations become excessively large.
Should i use a macro that determines permutations/combinations? I am kind of clueless on this one.
If it helps to put the problem in context; I am trying to determine a demand distribution as input for a stochastic programming model
Can anyone help, I'm trying to create some test data, eg 1000 rows in excel. In each cell a formula (?) returns some text such as Dog, Cat or Rabbit based on the probability Dog=0.5, Cat=0.3, Rabbit=0.2
I've come up with a messy solution of generating a random number between 1-100 and then using a lookup table where 1-50 = dog etc... it works but is long winded and difficult for other people to follow.
1. I need to randomly generate either a 1, 6 or 12 every time I hit calculate (i.e. F9).
2. I want to specify the probablility of each result. For example, I want 12 to be the result 80% of the time, and 6 and 1 to be the result 10% of the time.
Each question is multiple choice (either A/B/C/D/E) and the values listed are the probability of each letter occurring. What formula would I need to put in the 'output' column for it in each row to output a letter based on the probabilities. E.g. in question 1, most of the time it would output E, but sometimes (rarely) A and very rarely B/C/D.
