Probability: Binomial Distribution
Nov 27, 2006
There is trading system which generates a winning trade per ONE stock in ONE month’s time with a probability of 5/12 (0,4166%). If the system trades 10 independent stocks the probability of any number of winning trades occurring out of all of them in ONE month is shown below:
None 0,0046
One 0,0326
Two 0,1047
Three 0,1995
Four 0,2494
Five 0,2172
Six 0,1272
Seven 0,0519
Eight 0,0139
Nine 0,0022
Ten 0,0002
I took these values from a book…I tried to reproduce these values in the spreadsheet that I attached. My table looks as follows:
0 0,0046
1 0,0033
2 0,0023
3 0,0017
4 0,0012
5 0,0008
6 0,0006..........
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Sep 10, 2008
I have been working on a problem that requires being able to calculate the chances of any winnng a series of coin tosses with a weighted coin.
The coin has for arguments sake a 65% / 35% chance of landing heads or tails and to win the game you need to hit your side 9 times.
Can you use excel to calculate things like: If heads takes the lead 1-0, what does that mean the its overall percentage chance of winning? If the score is 7-3 to tails, what are the chances of either side gaining victory? etc, etc.
I thought that there would be a way of setting up a spreadsheet that listed the goal (first to 9, 12, 15 or whatever) and below this the percentage chance of heads and the percentage chance of tails. Then somewhere would be a box to enter the current score (0-0, 3-5, 1-1 or whatever) and beside this the current chance of heads or tails gaining victory.
I've tried setting up something like this but am a bit of a dufus when it comes to knowing how, where and when to use the different functions of excel.
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Apr 8, 2008
I'm working on a problem that calculates data using a binomial distribution. The data derived from the binomial distribution is then used to calculate a cost. I would like to minimize cost by changing the number of " reservations". Can excel solver do this or is it too complicated? I have attached the file with what I'm working on. (Changing E1 to minimize E2 while Cells A9:A102 are calculating a binomial distribution)
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May 11, 2014
I'm trying to make a bell curve (normal gauss distribution). I have some problems regarding the probability density curve, since its values are so low. If you look column N in the attached file - I used the NORMDIST command. Values should be somewhere between 0,2 and 0,4 - but they're about 100x lower.
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Jun 3, 2006
I have two data sets one measured and one modelled and I am testing a conceptual model that proposes that only where the tails of the probability distributions of each data set crosses will you experience an event. I'm enclosing an example file which contains both data sets and some descriptive statistics as well as the associated histograms and a diagram of what I'm ultimately trying to achieve. My question is how I go from the data sets I have with such a large discrepancy between them to plotting their probability distributions?
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Dec 29, 2007
I'm trying to do a binomial distribution summation as part of a VBA function, and have been using the Application.WorksheetFunction.BinomDist function, which works fine until the numbers get large - the binomial coefficients used in the calculation end up being larger than can be held in a double floating-point number in VBA, so excel can't handle it. The final result of the calculation is a probability, so it's not a huge number! I was wondering if anyone knows an alternate way of calculating binomial probabilities which avoid any huge number intermediates.
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Apr 11, 2007
This is more of a probability question than Excel - but I know Excel has functions to work out the answer (and I was hopeless with probability maths at school so knowing which function to use is also a problem)
Here's the deal:
There are 43,000 tickets in a multiple draw lottery/raffle
There are 1,730 prizes available.
Each winning ticket is returned to the pool after being drawn, so in theory, one extremely lucky ticket holder could take home every prize.
However, what is the statistical probability (chance) of winning a single prize and what formulae/functions does one use to generate the answer?
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Jun 3, 2014
I want to know if it's possible to calculate the probability that a certain range of values, reach to a certain point.....
The range is this (example):
4
3
9
7
14
22
15
20
42
46.....
What I want to know is if this tendency will reach to 1000. Or how many steps more will be need to reach 1000.
Like I said, and don't know if this is in the right place, but if you put this values in a graphic you will see that the tendency is growing. I assume that this tendency will reach to 1000. But will be in the next 10 steps or in the next 30.
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May 5, 2014
=NORM.DIST(-0.7525,0,1,FALSE)=0.30057
I want to do inverse 0.30057 To get -0.7525 ,NORM.INV(0.30057,0,1) This function returns only cumulative distribution .
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Nov 10, 2013
Lets say I have 20 cells. I want to randomly assign a label to the each cell from 5 choices, like "Blue", "Orange", "White", "Green", and "Black". But I want to assign a probability of selecting the labels. So the percent probability of choosing Blue would be 56% and White would be 23%, etc. . . is there a function that allows me to do this?
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Dec 4, 2006
I need a probability distribution for amounts to be shipped taking into account both the probabilty distribution on parcel sizes (amounts to be shipped) per ship as well as the probabilities on the number of ships arriving.
Please see the following:
Say you have a probabilty distribution for ships arriving, i.e. the probabilty of 1 ship arriving in a specific time period= 0.25 ( event a), the probabilty of 2 ships arriving = 0.2 (event B) etc. Please take into account that this can go up to about 20 ships per time period.
Each ship can have one of four parcel sizes, (demand that needs to be met) (the following are just example probabilties)
0 tons with a probability of 0.67 event 1
1000 tons with a probabilty of 0.08 event 2
1500 tons with a probabilty of 0.222 event 3
2000 tons with a probabilty of 0.022 event 4
Thus event a has a probabilty of occuring, in event a, events 1to 4 can occur with their respective probabilties.
I assumed events 1 to 4 stay the same for all ships arriving (as we are dealing with multiple products, each product will have different parcel size distributions, however I look at products seperately, thus only one product is considered here)
This is simple for 1 or 2 ships, but as the number of ships increase the number of combinations become excessively large.
Should i use a macro that determines permutations/combinations? I am kind of clueless on this one.
If it helps to put the problem in context; I am trying to determine a demand distribution as input for a stochastic programming model
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Feb 10, 2009
Can anyone help, I'm trying to create some test data, eg 1000 rows in excel. In each cell a formula (?) returns some text such as Dog, Cat or Rabbit based on the probability Dog=0.5, Cat=0.3, Rabbit=0.2
I've come up with a messy solution of generating a random number between 1-100 and then using a lookup table where 1-50 = dog etc... it works but is long winded and difficult for other people to follow.
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Mar 8, 2007
1. I need to randomly generate either a 1, 6 or 12 every time I hit calculate (i.e. F9).
2. I want to specify the probablility of each result. For example, I want 12 to be the result 80% of the time, and 6 and 1 to be the result 10% of the time.
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Dec 24, 2009
I have the following table:
http://img85.imageshack.us/i/tableb.jpg/
Each question is multiple choice (either A/B/C/D/E) and the values listed are the probability of each letter occurring. What formula would I need to put in the 'output' column for it in each row to output a letter based on the probabilities. E.g. in question 1, most of the time it would output E, but sometimes (rarely) A and very rarely B/C/D.
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Oct 24, 2005
I know EXCEL has functions for both the NORMAL DISTRIBUTION and the
cumulative value thereof...
but is it possible to graph this data..
(I imagine if I sort the data and then calculate the ***. distributions into
a column...then chart it, it should work; BUT IS THERE ANOTHER WAY?)
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May 22, 2009
I need a formula that distributes a % based on position.
The positions are 1 through 20, and each one has a corresponding % value ...
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Jan 11, 2010
I'm looking to analyse is how long these articles take to reach maturity from their date of publication (so, when they achieve their optimum performance).
I'd then like to further analyse this across various metrics like article type/producer etc., which, I guess, would be in some kind of Pivot Table filter-type-thing.
Here's an example of some of my data:
ArticleName - PublishedDate - OctViews - NovViews - DecViews - ArticleType - Producer
Article1 - Oct-08 - 3701 - 4856 - 4561 - Food - ABCTV
Article2 - Nov-08 - 0 - 9824 - 1256 - Food - ABCTV
Article3 - Oct-08 - 1358 - 8953 - 9652 - Tech - XYZ.com
Article4 - Oct-08 - 1351 - 2354 - 3562 - Tech - ABCTV
The part I'm finding tricky is this; what we'd like to do is rather than look at a specific date (say, articles published on 09/04/08) it would be useful to combine all the dates so that the first month something is published is Month 1, regardless of the date it is actually published.
As the same article can be from the same producer but published at different times, if I could remove the "Jan-Mar = Month 1-Month 3" problem it would allow us to graph all the data into one snapshot of the publishing process and find trends. If this could then be cross examinable by the ArticleType etc. it'd be really useful.
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Nov 1, 2009
I have a spreadsheet which has a list of staff (column B) and work categories (row 3).
Row 4 is updated each day with a count of the incoming work for each work category.
I want to be able to randomly distribute (as evenly as possible) the no of work items in Row 4 between the doers (B7:B13). Each item of work also has to be checked so I would also like to randomly distribute the checking between the checkers (B16:B18)....
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Nov 16, 2006
Say I measure the height of 1000 people and I have those in a column in excel. It should be a normal distribution with mean x and standard deviation y. How do I actually graph it so I can see the normal distrubution curve that looks something like this:
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I tried making a scatter graph but it graphs them point by point. I want the height to be on the x axis and something like frequency on the y axis.
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Jan 23, 2007
There are 16,777,216 cells in a spreadsheet. These cells are distributed in a spreadsheet by 256 columns and 65,536 rows.
Can I in any way distribute these cells otherwise?
Say distributing them in 512 columns and 32,768 rows?
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Jul 18, 2007
i have some number that i want to put in a normal distribution
so.. i have age ( 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) and have the number of times that the kid wake in the night ( 10, 12, 9,11,8,9,7,9,11) and want to do the normal distribution grafic with that .
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Sep 15, 2007
Refer to the attached sample workbook,
(Keep in mind that there is an error in the sample workbook; Im not sure how to remove and re-attach the sample workbook as this is my first day on this forum.)
Cell F19 should contain =D19*B19
Column 1- These values will not change and represent price/cost of each UNIT
Column 2- "UNITS" the quantity or number of items at column1 value
Column 3- "$ AMT" the total cost of UNITS at that price/cost, i.e. Column1*Column2
Im looking for a way populate the values in Column2 when, "NUMBER OF UNITS" AND "AVERAGE COST PER UNIT" are changed
Ideally speaking, As few units in one row as possible to allow for a good mix.
For example: What i don't want is $9000*86 for 774k.
If it helps: "AVERAGE COST PER UNIT" will always be a whole number rounded up to the nearest 1000.
I believe a Most Even distribution of units will work fine.
After the distribution/population of fields in column2;
D29 must equal F3
F29 must equal F7
I'm looking for something that will populate the values in D12:D27 while adhering to the two conditions above. Even when the Input at F3 and F4 are changed.
The values in "UNITS" represent the number of a specific cost item in inventory when added together do not exceed the "TOTAL COST OF INVENTORY". Depending on store location, the "AVERAGE COST PER UNIT" and/or the "NUMBER OF UNITS" will change. It will be used to help forecast how many of a specific cost item should be purchased based on the overall average unit cost without exceeding the budget or inventory space.
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Feb 22, 2014
How to crate a chart for normal distribution for a set of datas. say marks of students/ number of students in a class
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Feb 16, 2014
AMOUNT 42400 is distributed among 6 people (C) in percentage if any of them or any 2 of them is deleted their contribution percentage need to be distributed among other.
I am attaching the example sheet... EXAMPLE.xlsx‎
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Jan 12, 2005
I need to know how to send an email from Outlook using a rather large email address list (500 addresses) that resides in Excel.
Also, I need to know how to hide the individual recipients and send it out under a title name. I want all of the recipients to see the title name only - and not each other.
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Jun 18, 2009
I'm trying to automatize the filling of 4 different tables regarding time (hours , minute)
In other words first i need to select from about 500 products names about 180 products i need. I solved this with an automatic filter like this
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Nov 27, 2006
I want to email with excel, and I know how to do it if I have a distribution list already set up in outlook. I want to avoid having this DL in outlook though, and instead keep a list in the actual excel workbook. I tried having the list and then combining all the cells with a semicolon inbetween the addresses into one single cell, then assigning that cell to a variable and inserting it in the cose in place of the DL name, but it doesn't work. Apparently you can't mail to mutliple address thru the VB code, either a single address or a DL. Am I incorrect in this? So I thought maybe I could somehow create the DL first using the names in the list thru code, and then using that DL name to send the workbook.
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Nov 24, 2004
I am trying to model the distribution of cash flows from a real estate investment. This is a bit complicated, but basically A1 through A37 are a series of cash flows after payment of debt service from month 0 (closing) to month 36. The real estate project has two investors, the Institutional Investor and the Developer. In this case, the Institutional Investor contributes 90% of the required project equity and the developer contributes the remaining 10%. The cash flow is distributed according to a set of parameters specifying cash flow percentage allocations and IRR targets, collectively known as a "cash flow waterfall"." As with all for-sale residential development deals, the early cash flows are negative and then turn positive as unit sales occur. The order of distribution of the cash flow remaining after debt service is paid is as follows (the waterfall):
1. Both investors receive the return of their invested capital from cash flow distributions.
1. Hurdle 1 (after the return of equity to both investors), the Institutional Investor receives 90% of the monthly cash flows and the Developer 10%, proportional to their respective overall equity contributions, until both investors achieve a 12% IRR (all IRR's to be calculated from deal inception/first dollar invested).
2. Hurdle 2, (after Hurdle 1 is satisfied), the Institutional Investor receives 60% of the monthly cash flows until the Institutional Investor achieves an 18% IRR.
3. The Final Split (after satisfying Hurdle 2) allocates monthly cash flow 50% to each investor.
On an overall project basis, the Developer should realize a disproportionate share of the cash flow after the second hurdle is hit. This is what is known as the "promote." The most recent 36 month (37 including Closing) projected cash flows are as follows:
($1,315,567) - Closing
($113,697) - Month 1
($178,397)
($168,667)
($150,365)
($36,506)
$16,662
$120,283
$107,443
$107,443
I realize this is complicated, but this structure is quite common to real estate, private equity, venture capital and hedge fund investments (along with most any joint venture deals with multiple classes of equity participants). The canned software that is out there that performs this type of anlysis is both expensive and rigid, and doesn't typically enable the required sensitivity analysis in structuring a deal.
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Jul 19, 2006
in VBA the RND function generates a random number using uniform distribution (every number is as likely as any other). Is there a function to generate a random number using normal distribution where the numbers closest to the mean are more likely to occure then numbers further away from the mean. I've created the following custom function to generate a random number between two given values using uniform distribution.
Function RandNum(Min As Double, Max As Double) As Double
RandNum = (Max - Min) * Rnd + Min
End Function
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Aug 30, 2007
What formula should I use if I have a list of maturity dates and current investments amounts as of 06/30/07:
06/30/08 10,000
08/31/14 18,000
05/31/08 11,000
07/31/09 25,000
06/30/10 14,000
12/31/25 80,000
and the amounts need to be distributed in columns titled:
Within 1 Yr (From 7/1/07 to 6/30/08)
After 1 to 5 Yrs (From 7/1/08 to 6/30/13)
After 5 yrs (After 7/1/13)
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