Forecasting Using Historical Seasonally Effected Non-linear Data
Jan 15, 2010
Forecasting using historical seasonally effected data
I organize my thoughts in numbers so it will be easier to understand.
[1] Say I have this data from January 2009 to December 2009:
1-4-7-10-13-14-15-16-18-20-22-25
As you can see, the growth is not linear.
[2] So then, I start with this data point for Janaury 2010.
26-a-b-c-d-f-g-h-i-j-k-l
[3] I now want to forecast that data point for the rest of 2009...using the growth in [1]. SO i guess that's an easy task right? Take the percentage change from Jan 08 and Feb 08...and apply that to the 26...and so on. (am i correct here at least).
[4] But lets say we have a GOAL. So, this become a forecast/plan. In December 2010, i want to grow double the amount of that in December 09. So 25 x 2 = 50. Now, the "known" data is like this:
26-a-b-c-d-f-g-h-i-j-k-50
So how do i do this now?
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Nov 21, 2011
Have to forecast/create a trend for the current year based on the data available for last two years. Below is the format of data. The current year data is kept blank as the data needs to be filled based on forecasting/ trending.
30-Apr-0931-May-0930-Jun-0931-Jul-098/31/20099/30/200910/31/200911/30/200912/31/20091/31/2010
2/28/20103/31/20106075443580901511256025304030-Apr-1031-May-1030-Jun-1031-Jul-108/31/20109/30/2010
10/31/201011/30/201012/31/20101/31/20112/28/20113/31/2011100150756070859611045663544
30-Apr-1131-May-1130-Jun-1131-Jul-1131-Aug-1130-Sep-1131-Oct-1130-Nov-1131-Dec-1131-Jan-1228-Feb-1230-Mar-12
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Test3.xlsm
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[Code]....
QueryQuote:
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