# Seasonal Forecasting Trend

Apr 2, 2009
I'm trying to figure out how to do seasonal forecasting based on volumes. I tried to use FORECAST but the numbers are not accurate.

I have actual data to work with to come up with my forecasting on a monthly basis. Our yearly calender is from Nov 08 to Oct 09.

Here's a sample of the data....

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Aug 30, 2006

Attached please find two charts based on data from 2003 until year-end 2006 (estimated). I want to show that the data is "seasonal" and sales depends on the month it falls on... i have several issues with the chart, is the second chart "too" overlapping and is there too much data to read? 2) how can i get the text boxes to go in the same direction as the chart..i know in powrerpoint you can move the direction of the textbox but how in excel? in sum, i can only choose one chart but still want to make each chart look much better.

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Sep 14, 2006

If I have a database of 1000 records that are logged and counted as to which of these records are successful and unsuccessful sales,

can excel be programmed to give an accurate forecast of what will be the number/ percentage of successful sales records over the next 100, 50, 30 and 10 new record entry ranges, using the database history?, then which of the new records within each selected range are most likely to be successful sales using the database history?

If so, what components or data references are needed in a worksheet to meet these requirements to allow for creating an accurate forecasting application within excel?

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Jul 15, 2009

I have a row of totals in a spreadsheet and I want to calculate a forecasted total based on the previous month's totals.

For example I have two months and I want to know how to calculate the forecasted Jun 09 total: ...

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Oct 19, 2009

I am trying to come up with the appropriate formula that can be used for possible forecasting purposes. Countif proves to be futile due to more than one criteria that needs to be met. Sumproduct seems to be more feasible but I am unable to get the correct formula or maybe I am wrong.

Here's the objective...I need to be able to plot the total number of people working on a project on a daily basis - # of people working on a Monday, Tuesday and so forth by means of referring to start and end date column..I am open to revisions so as to streamline everything.

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Dec 27, 2013

I do forecasting for my company. We have a forecast every quarter. Any good templates (simple or complex) for presenting different quarters (or time periods) and the actual results for management?

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Nov 21, 2011

Have to forecast/create a trend for the current year based on the data available for last two years. Below is the format of data. The current year data is kept blank as the data needs to be filled based on forecasting/ trending.

30-Apr-0931-May-0930-Jun-0931-Jul-098/31/20099/30/200910/31/200911/30/200912/31/20091/31/2010

2/28/20103/31/20106075443580901511256025304030-Apr-1031-May-1030-Jun-1031-Jul-108/31/20109/30/2010

10/31/201011/30/201012/31/20101/31/20112/28/20113/31/2011100150756070859611045663544

30-Apr-1131-May-1130-Jun-1131-Jul-1131-Aug-1130-Sep-1131-Oct-1130-Nov-1131-Dec-1131-Jan-1228-Feb-1230-Mar-12

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Jun 19, 2008

I am trying to use excel to forecast budget expenditure for the fiscal year, using actuals from months past + unknown (future months).

I have this formula in cell G2: =IF((worksheet A!G70>0),F2,IF((B2

>D2),(B2-C2)*F6+F2,IF((B2

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Dec 8, 2008

I have a base model for site openings and opening schedule. I need to build a 5 yr model which reflects the base model for each opening. I have matched the month in the model to the opening month but how do I get the base model subsequent months to follow the opening month?

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Sep 21, 2013

I thought about using it for forecasting purposes. I might try to use it together with live data (temperature, seasonal patterns)... but if I graph it, it starts from left to right...

How to modify the code a bit...

VB:

Shift:=xlUp, CopyOrigin:=xlFormatFromRightOrDown

I tried to change the code, but it did not worked.

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Jan 15, 2010

Forecasting using historical seasonally effected data

I organize my thoughts in numbers so it will be easier to understand.

[1] Say I have this data from January 2009 to December 2009:

1-4-7-10-13-14-15-16-18-20-22-25

As you can see, the growth is not linear.

[2] So then, I start with this data point for Janaury 2010.

26-a-b-c-d-f-g-h-i-j-k-l

[3] I now want to forecast that data point for the rest of 2009...using the growth in [1]. SO i guess that's an easy task right? Take the percentage change from Jan 08 and Feb 08...and apply that to the 26...and so on. (am i correct here at least).

[4] But lets say we have a GOAL. So, this become a forecast/plan. In December 2010, i want to grow double the amount of that in December 09. So 25 x 2 = 50. Now, the "known" data is like this:

26-a-b-c-d-f-g-h-i-j-k-50

So how do i do this now?

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Jul 16, 2007

I have historical sales for each month from the last 3 years. I would like to set up a seasonality adjustment for forecasting. I know that it won't be perfect and some may even suggest using regression, but I'd rather not. I'd like to do the following:

In a control sheet, list the months in chronological order beginning in cell A1; January, A2, February; etc., etc. through December.

Next, below each month, I'd like to have a factor. For example, in B1 beneath January, I'd like to be able to plug in 75%. This would say that for each January going forward, that it is 75% of the annual historical average for all periods. Whereas, say in June, it is 140%.

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Apr 11, 2007

how I would go about setting up a spreadsheet that will allow me to look at previous orders and forecast what I need to buy. He never got into trouble for ordering too much, but he did get caught on ordering too little. I am thinking something along the lines of the attached. However, if anyone is using something that looks or works better (or those who solve this little problem have done a better looking or working sheet) let me know.

There will be some Vlookups that need to bring in description and price (or some other function if there is a better way to do it). The min need and max need will be populated and brought in by vlookup. The order column should be where the forecasting happens based on previous orders. I am willing to have all the data in the same workbook. The second or third sheet can be used to store data in what ever format that is needed to be done.

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Jan 6, 2009

I have two columns where TREND does not work well. I want to calculate the TREND value of Column 2 (PERCENTILE RANK) based on a new RAW number. If I TREND between just the two rows, the value is fine (i.e. If I TREND between 105 and 110 RAW, I get the right PERCENTILE RANK if the new X value is 106 (which is 15.3% PERCENTILE RANK). How can I make a formula that will only look at the two rows and TREND just those two rows to give me the right PERCENTILE RANK.

RAW PERCENTILE RANK

10514

11020.4

11121.8

11729.5

11833

12342.5

12444.5

12954.4...........

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Jan 12, 2010

I have a simple x y scatter graph, to which i have a trend line running through it, fine.

what i need to do is fine some values according to that trend line. e.g. my X axis goes up to 60 and my Y axis goes to 10, so if i draw accross at 55 from the trend line, i then go down to a number on my Y axis.

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Dec 14, 2008

What I have is a column (column A) that only has two data entries at any one time.

I need column B to fill in the trend of those two data points.

My problem is I don't know how to deal with the cells that say #N/A. Which is every cell other than the two cells with data.

If I replace the #N/As with say 1, then it messes up the trend data points.

It seems like I need to be using the trend command, but any solution would be welcome.

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Nov 23, 2011

When using the Trend function, I can get the value for individual future periods. I then can get a total for the year by summing each individual future period.

What I don't know how to do is sum them all using one formula. For instance, If I know the values of periods 1-5, how would I write a formula that would sum the future values (in one cell) of periods 6-12 -- without having to sum each future period individually?

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Aug 5, 2008

1. I use a number of x,y pairs

2. From x,y pairs I produce "scatter" type chart

3. From the chart I get trend line and its equation e.g. 5-order polinominal

4. I convert equation into excel formula

5. I apply formula onto the same range of x argument and produce graph

6. The graph is very much different from the trend line!!! I would expect exact match as I use equation/formula for the trend line.

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Sep 6, 2006

I am trying to use VBA to find a value on a trendline. I have been unable to call the TREND function from Excel, and I can't see what I'm doing wrong. I'm using the following line of

point25 = WorksheetFunction.TREND( Range("d2:d25"), Range("c2:c25"), 25)

I keep getting "Runtime error 1004 - Unable to get the Trend property of the WorksheetFunction class".

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Oct 5, 2006

I need to analyse trends between a range of cells. The idea is to display an image of a triangle pointing up if the percentage between the current month and the previous is bigger, a triangle pointing down if the percentage has decreased or a rectangle if both months are the same. I've tried to build a userform to ask the user to input the range and then analyze the data...with no luck at all.

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Jan 4, 2007

I am using the Forecast formula to give me a value from a Linear trend. However I need to limit the resulting value that is displayed within a min and max value. Background: This is to allow me to calculate the amount of bonus someone will earn depending on the Percentages of their target they achieve. The min bonus is 25% when 80% of target is achieved and max bonus is 100% when 125% or greater of target is achieved.

So the Forecast formular works great using the existing values, but i need help limiting the results to between 25% and 100%. I was trying to use a sumif formula to copy the resulting cell but only if the value fell between the 25 and 100%. I've attached the spreadsheet as I think it will highlight what i'm trying to do better than I can explain it.

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Mar 3, 2007

I am trying to use the TREND worksheet function on a vba array. I keep getting Runtime error 1004: Unable to get the TREND property of the WorksheetFunction Class. I can bypass the error (like it were a search with no result), but I get no result of any kind from the function. My search of other threads yields nothing concrete, but causes a guess that it may have to be used on a worksheet range not a vba array. But that's not actually stated in any of the threads, and I find no documentation to that effect. Is this the issue or is it something else altogether?

Sub test()

Dim knowny As Variant

Dim knownx As Variant

Dim newx As Integer

Dim myval As Integer

knowny = Array(2, 4, 6, 8, 10)

knownx = Array(1, 2, 3, 4, 5)

newx = 6

'On Error Resume Next

myval = Application.WorksheetFunction.Trend(knowny, knownx, newx)

' 'next error, err as normal.

' On Error GoTo 0

' Err.Clear

Debug.Print myval

End Sub

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May 31, 2007

Ive got an inventory of about 2000+ items as well as items that can be broken down into more specific groups such as colors, designs and sizes. What i want to know is how to get the correlation, thats excel function CORREL(), of each item for the time weve had it. The data I can provide is the monthly quanitity sold of the item.

For example I have item A.

Sold Month

5 1

7 2

4 3

5 4

and so on. Easy enough to do. My only problem is I would have to manually do that 2000+ times for my entire inventory to figure that out. What I wants is a command that can verify my item code, which is simple enough as I can convert the item code to something as simple as a string or leave it as is. Not every item has been in the system an equally long time though. If that were the case i could just copy it with blank cells to fill the space and copy and paste all the way down. So I need to find a way to get an IF statement to correlate the corresponding cells IF the item number matches the target cell. What I have right now is something to this extent.

=IF('2'!$A:$A,A1,CORREL('2'!$B:$B,'2'!$E:$E))

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Dec 5, 2007

On top of these graphs, i draw a line (insert a line shape) corresponding to a certain gradient in the data presented. I do not want this line to be exact (i.e. not point to point) as it is best to be drawn by eye so that the general 'gist' of the data can be found. What i would like, using any method available, is to be able to find the gradient of this line i have just drawn which obviosuly must be done taking into account the scale of the graph. The scales of the graph will not be consistent across all applications.

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Jun 24, 2014

I've created a graph from data and need to add an average/net impact/trend line to the graph. From what I've read this needs to be an XY scatter, however, several efforts later and I can't seem to get it to work for me.

0514_Costs_DRAFT_ExcelF.xlsx

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Jul 15, 2014

i have a stacked bar chart, similar to this: [URL] What i need is a trend line, similar to this: [URL] that shows the average of the bottom bar to date.

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Jan 10, 2014

Ok so heres an example workbook:

Book5.xlsx

As you can see from the workbook, each column's amount of numbers depends on the data pulled from an index/match function.

These numbers will change and I want the TREND function to dynamically change with the data.

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May 15, 2014

I'm having difficulty figuring out how to line graph two separate dates. I also want to show a trend.

I was first thinking I would need two graphs, but is there a way to merge into one?

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Aug 29, 2013

I am forecasting some numbers and I wanted to see which function would be best suited for my task. I used the TREND function and then the FORECAST, I was expecting the same results but appeared to have slight differences.

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Jan 23, 2014

I am trying to fit a cooling graph with a trendline and I have found the power line to fit the best, as well as corresponding with Newton's law of cooling. However, I am not savvy enough to discuss how similar or dissimilar the two equations are!

the resulting equations from two different curves are as follows:

y=4305 x^-0.87733

y=4025 x^-0.91004

both fits have an R^2 of 0.996.

I am analyzing two scenarios of cooling the same object with three variables, one intended (the extraction of energy using water flow in one case, and no extraction in the other) and the others not under my control: different starting temperatures and different ambient temperatures. I need to understand if these are generally the same curve, or how very different are they? is there any statistical way to represent their relationship?

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